Urbanisation-Environment Coupling Coordination: Evidence from Anhui’s Urban Agglomerations

Abstract

Under the constraints of China’s ‘dual carbon’ goals, coordinating between urbanisation and environment has become a key challenge for regions undergoing rapid structural transformation. Focusing on eight prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province, this paper examines coupling coordination over the period 2018-2023. By constructing comprehensive indicator systems, the coupling coordination degree is measured, and its spatiotemporal evolution is evaluated. A fixed-effects panel regression framework is employed to investigate the role of economic development and the moderating effect of population density. The results indicate that, during the analysis period, the coupling coordination degree increased steadily, suggesting a gradual transition from a relatively low level of coordination toward a more balanced and synergistic development stage, although inter-city disparities persist. The regression analysis shows that economic development is positively associated with the coupling coordination degree, highlighting the role of development quality in supporting urban-environmental interaction. Moreover, population density plays a positive moderating role. However, given the composite nature of the coupling coordination degree and potential endogeneity concerns, these findings should be interpreted as associational rather than causal.