Spatial Divergence in Ageing and Dependency Burden Across Administrative Districts in Sarawak (2010–2020)

Abstract

The demographic megatrend of population ageing presents profound challenges for Malaysia’s development agenda, particularly in East Malaysian states like Sarawak, where the pace of demographic transition is regionally uneven. While national-level projections forecast Malaysia becoming an aged nation by 2030, subnational disparities in ageing patterns and dependency burden are rarely analysed in spatially explicit terms. This gap limits the ability of local policymakers to plan for age-related pressure son social infrastructure, healthcare, and economic productivity. This study aims to examine the spatial divergence of ageing and dependency burden across administrative districts in Sarawak between 2010 and 2020. Using demographic data from the Department of Statistics Malaysia, the study calculates two key indicators: the Old-Age Dependency Ratio (OADR) and the Total Dependency Ratio (TDR). To identify spatial clusters of significant demographic burden, Hot spot Analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*) was applied to 2020 data. Additionally, K-means Cluster Analysis was employed to classify districts into distinct ageing profiles based on their demographic transition rates and elderly population growth. The findings reveal growing spatial inequality in ageing and dependency trends across the state. Several central and interior districts emerged as ageing hot spots with significantly higher OADR values. The cluster analysis identified five distinct district typologies (Clusters A–E), highlighting regions with rapid demographic ageing and those with persistently youthful structures. These insights demonstrate the heterogeneous nature of demographic ageing and challenge the applicability of one-size-fits-all policies. The study underscores the value of spatial analytical methods for informing decentralised policy design. By pinpointing regional disparities, the results support more targeted and equitable distribution of social services, healthcare infrastructure, and ageing-related interventions, critical for achieving inclusive and resilient demographic outcomes in line with national family and population development goals.