Spatial Determinants of Environmental Quality in Central Java, Indonesia: Evidence from a Geographically Weighted Regression Approach

Abstract

Central Java Province, the fifth most populous province in Indonesia,with a density of 1,113people per km², faces mounting pressure on environmental quality despite moderate current conditions. This study aims to examine the spatial influence of poverty, Human Development Index (HDI), and rice productivity on the Environmental Quality Index (EQI) across regencies and cities in Central Java in 2023. The uniqueness of this research lies in the use of the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model, whichenables a spatially nuanced analysis beyond conventional global regression, thereby capturing regional variations more accurately. In the long term, this approach can support the formulation of more targeted and region-specific environmental policies.The study employs a quantitative approach using secondary data from regencies and cities in Central Java, analyzed through the GWR model. The results indicate that the effect of poverty on the Environmental Quality Indexis spatially uneven, with three regions showing a significant negative relationship while the other 32 regions show no significant effect. HDI exhibits mixed influences: seven regions demonstrate significant relationships, consisting of one positive and six negative, while 28 regions remain insignificant. Rice productivity also displays spatial variability, with three regions showing significant positive effects, one region showing a negativeeffect, and most regions showing insignificant.These findings highlight the importance of adopting adaptive and spatially-informed environmental management strategies. Policies should integrate poverty reduction with environmental protection, strengthen human development through environmental literacy, and encourage sustainable agricultural practices. Suchmeasures are essential to improve environmental quality in Central Java while balancing the challenges of high population density and rapid economic growth.