Female Voter Turnout and Victory Margins in Sarawak Elections: A Linear Regression Analysis (2006–2021) = Penyertaan Pengundi Wanita Dan Margin Kemenangan Dalam Pilihan Raya Sarawak: Analisis Regresi Linear (2006–2021)

Abstract

In Malaysia, women constitute roughly half the electorate, yet the influence of female turnout on State Legislative Assemble (DUN) electoral outcomes is poorly documented, especially in Sarawak. This study quantifies the effect of female turnout on victory margins in Sarawak’s state elections (2006, 2011, 2016, 2021) using linear regression on constituency-level data (registered female voters, winning vote counts). The analysis reveals a strong positive association between female turnout and winning margins in 2006–2016 (R² = 0.677–0.879), indicating that constituencies with higher female engagement yielded more decisive victories. In 2021, however, this predictive power dropped sharply (R² = 0.322), signaling evolving voter dynamics. The findings suggest female voters have been pivotal in past elections, underscoring the need for gender-responsive strategies. Conversely, the attenuated effect in 2021 implies new factors including an expanded youth electorate (with turnout exceeding 75 % in recent polls) and intensified digital campaigning are reshaping electoral contests. This analysis provides novel empirical evidence on gendered voting dynamics at the Malaysian State Legislative Assemble (DUN) level, contributing to debates on electoral competitiveness and inclusive democracy by showing that women’s turnout continues to matter, albeit in a shifting political landscape.