Enhanced IMERG SPE Using LSTM with a Novel Adaptive Regularization Method

Abstract

Satellite-based precipitation estimates (SPE) provide essential spatial coverage and near real-time availability for hydrological applications but often exhibit systematic biases in regions characterized by complex terrain and strong climatic variability, limiting their reliability for flood-related studies. To address these limitations, this study proposes an Adaptive Regularization framework integrated within a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to enhance satellite–gauge rainfall fusion beyond conventional optimization strategies. The framework dynamically adjusts learning rate and weight decay during training based on validation performance and overfitting indicators, improving training stability, data efficiency, and model generalization across diverse precipitation regimes. The proposed approach was applied to refine Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) daily rainfall estimates over the flood-prone east coast of Peninsular Malaysia. Model performance was assessed against ten optimization algorithms using correlation coefficient (CC), mean absolute error (MAE), normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE), percentage bias (PBias), and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE). Results show that the Adaptive Regularization framework consistently outperforms all benchmark optimizers, achieving an MAE of 6.87, CC of 0.68, NRMSE of 1.84, and KGE of 0.56. Overall, the proposed framework enhances spatial consistency and robustness across monsoon seasons, offering a scalable solution for improving SPE in flood-prone regions.